Alina Charaeva vs Xinyu Gao Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Recently, Gao has a second serve winning percentage of 39.86%, while Charaeva slightly edges him with 39.88%. Can such a small difference affect match prediction? It seems it might.
• In return games, Gao outperforms Charaeva on first serve returns, with success rates of 36.31% and 34.71% respectively. However, Charaeva demonstrates better returns of second serves at 53.21% compared to Gao's 51.39%.
• When under pressure, Gao and Charaeva's ability to save breakpoints is nearly identical, with respective rates of 47.39% and 47.75%.
• Over the last year, Gao has won 57.41% of matches, while Charaeva surpasses this with 61.25% of matches won, suggesting a slight edge for Charaeva in terms of overall success.
• Both players excel on clay with Gao holding a 68% win rate and Charaeva close behind at 66%. Gao struggles on grass, having never won a match on that surface, while Charaeva is at 50%.
• Gao has faced opponents with an average ranking of 208.7 in the last 12 months, which is significantly higher than the average rank of 293.84 for Charaeva's opponents.
• In head-to-head encounters, both players have won one match each, albeit Gao won the recent match in three sets, having also shown strength in deciding sets generally, with a 65% success rate compared to Charaeva's 52%.
• In breakpoint conversion, Gao leads with 42.42% compared to Charaeva’s 40.19%, which might influence breakpoints in their upcoming match.

Editorial Prediction (September 3, 2025, UTC):

Both Gao and Charaeva have shown similar strengths and weaknesses in recent months, especially when it comes to converting second serve opportunities. While Charaeva has a slight edge in overall match victories in the past year, Gao has faced tougher opponents on average, suggesting his wins might hold more weight.

Their head-to-head history shows a balanced competition, with Gao recently outperforming Charaeva in their last meeting and showing resilience in deciding sets. Gao's superior breakpoint conversion and better performance under pressure could be crucial.

Although both players exhibit strong statistics on clay, a pivotal component of their matchup will be who can capitalize on their opponent's second serve effectively. Given Gao's recent head-to-head success and his ability to handle tougher competition, he is slightly more favored to win the upcoming match.